This article was last updated February 20, 2020 at 9:30 a.m. (CST)
Poker “Experts” Get It Wrong, As Facts Are Distorted To Push A Narrative
By Evert Caldwell, Staff
It made PokerNews.com’s top ten list of suspicious hands. Poker coach Andreas Froehli said it was the “most ridiculous hand that I’ve found”, and elite pro Scott Seiver said it broke his heart and made him “physically hurt”.
Former poker pro turned YouTube star Doug Polk also joined the ever growing list of “poker experts” weighing in, when he broke the hand down in a video SHOCKING POKER CHEATING : Why Everyone Is Freaking Out About Mike Postle. The video currently has over 1,524,000 views.
The “Moneymaker Hand” will definitely go down in Poker-Lore.
The narrative from those convinced Postle is cheating is that he knew each of his opponents were holding AK, which increased his equity, giving him the right odds to call.
Postle defended the call in an interview on “THE MOUTHPIECE” claiming he plays some hands for “a story amongst the guys” and a Stones floor gave him the hand to play. His explanation has once again brushed aside, with some even suggesting physical harm was in line for Postle.
Backing up Postle’s claims, former Stones Floor supervisor, Ben Dye, recently revealed in an article on RounderLife.com that he would indeed give Postle an offbeat “hand of the night”, and gave him the 5-4 (Moneymaker Hand) hand to play when Chris Moneymaker made an appearance in the livestream at Stones.
A quote from Moneymaker himself to Jon Sofan on CardsChat.com supports Dye’s revelation, further contradicting the cheating narrative :
“We had been joking around prior to the hand about me winning the World Series of Poker with the 5-4,” Moneymaker told me over the phone. “We were joking around and drinking on the stream, which you don’t see in the videos. So, it wasn’t that crazy of a play.”
How The Hand Played Out Watch video
The hand starts with a $45 straddle from Postle and calls from early position players. It then gets re-raised to $245 from “Naga” who held A♥K♣. Moneymaker 3-bets to $705 with his A♦K♠. Mike calls the $705 with 5♥4♣ only to have the pot re-raised all-in by “Naga” for $2.9k, and Moneymaker for the rest of his stack. The three players get it all in for a $11.2k pot.
After the players are all-in, they agree to run it twice, which means that a player needs to win both run-outs to win the whole pot. It ended up being a split pot. Since Postle won one run-out he would receive half of the main pot, and the other two players would split (quarter) the other half. The side pot between Moneymaker and Postle would be split evenly.
What’s most interesting and in itself seemingly debunks the theory that Postle was cheating if true, is Postle’s claim (in interview #1 on “THE MOUTHPIECE“) that instead of having the dealer give him his share of the main pot (half of approximately $9,000) he told the players to just take their money back and “lets get on to the next hand”, effectively passing on around $1,500 in profit, hardly fitting the profile of a greedy cheat.
Listen to Mike Postle explain the 5-4 hand on interview #1 of “THE MOUTHPIECE“ at 55:55
Rounder reached out to Chris Moneymaker for verification on whether or not Postle allowed him and ‘Naga’ to take their bets back. We didn’t receive a response.
Realizing the likelihood verification was not forthcoming, we investigated further. We documented each players stacks before the hand began and compared them to the next view of their stacks (after the hand was complete). What we found is that once again, as with his claim about the profit numbers being off, Postle’s account matches up with the evidence. That is, the stacks didn’t change other than each player receiving an equal amount (approx $30 each) from money put in the pot by other players.
At the end of the hand the camera stays in the above position. The dealer can be seen distributing the three stacks but more importantly he makes no movement to split up the players money. If he had awarded Postle half of the main pot, he would have been seen reaching over to the players’ stacks to do so.
“Naga” and Chris Moneymaker’s stack sizes are in plain view (below left), prior to the hand playing out. With it being a chopped pot, Naga and Moneymaker should have lost approximately $750 each in the hand, since they would split their half of the main pot (approximately $9,000). However, it’s clear neither players stacks decreased when they come into view during the next hand (below right).
The view of Postle’s stack (below left) prior to the hand makes it easy to see he didn’t receive what should have been around $1,500, when his stack comes into view during the next hand (bottom right).
Postles stack increases slightly (in red), from the $100 pot which was distributed equally to all three players (Naga, Moneymaker, and Postle). * The graphics show Postle lost money, which is a common graphic error when a board is run out more than once. The graphics adjust during a hand about ten minutes later.
Doug Polk Distorts Facts In “Moneymaker Hand”
In a video posted on Doug Polk Poker, Polk suggests Postle is looking at his phone in his lap during the “Moneymaker Hand” in order to gain information on what his opponents were holding. A closer look however, clearly shows Postle is pressed right up against the rail at the time, making it impossible to be doing what Polk continually suggests.
While anyone who has watched Postle play on the streams would have to admit he does look at his phone a lot, and does so while in some hands, this clearly isn’t one of them.
In support of his statement that he is “almost certain that the man is cheating”, Polk also displays charts and win rate numbers as evidence that have since been proven to be bogus.
You can’t argue with Polk’s success if it’s measured by views. His army of followers, judging by the comments section, treat everything he says as fact and they love his entertaining spin.
Polk has figured out that in today’s world a salacious conspiracy theory is much more likely to get views than an actual fact-based boring investigation. Sadly, no one seems to care if the evidence is distorted as long as what’s being presented matches up with what they want to hear.
From his take on this hand and other recently pushed conspiracy theories, it’s apparent Polk knows what gets the clicks, and has decided “More Fake Is BETTER?!“.
Additional Notes :
Two early position players in the “Moneymaker Hand” folded 4s (which were 2 of Postle’s outs), making it even more unlikely that he knew the other players hole cards in this hand.
Jeff ‘Boski’ Sluzinski (in seat 1) was one of the early position players who folded a 4.
“Mortgage Matt” (in seat 4) was the other player who folded a 4.
In a related article posted on CardsChat.com on October 2nd, 2019 Jon Sofen mistakenly states “Postle went on to win the hand, scooping an $11,000 pot.”
In the same article Sofen confirms through Moneymaker the hand was discussed prior to it playing out. “We had been joking around prior to the hand about me winning the World Series of Poker with the 5-4,” Moneymaker told me over the phone. “We were joking around and drinking on the stream, which you don’t see in the videos. So, it wasn’t that crazy of a play.” – CardsChat.com
We want to make it clear that Rounder Life Media is not giving an opinion as to whether or not we believe Mike Postle is innocent of these very serious allegations. We are searching for the truth, and reporting facts not unsubstantiated conjecture.
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Continuing Coverage of Our Investigation
New Numbers Cast Doubt On Postlegate
Rounder Report : Breakdown Of Mike Postle July 20, 2019 Stream At Stones
Postle May Have Played Regularly At Other Casino
Even When Gump And John S. Get It Right, They’re Wrong
Mike Postle Re-loads Twice In A Session He Plays With Bart Hanson : No Mention Of Non-Reported Add-ons In Interview With Win Rate Graph Creator John S.
I Told Mike Postle To “Make Some Money With The Moneymaker, From The Moneymaker”
Evidence Supports Mike Postle’s Version Of Infamous “Moneymaker Hand”
Mike Postle “Smoking Gun” Cheating Theory Flops With New Revelations
Mike Postle Asks Court To Dismiss Complaint
Reporter’s Errors Lead To Misreported Facts In Postlegate
Unearthed Evidence Exposes Major Error In Lawsuit Allegations
New Revelations Deflate “Postlegate” Narrative
Mike Postle Not Making All The right Moves Video
Statistics In ‘Postlegate” Completely Fabricated
In 2007 Rounder Magazine recognized Mike Postle as an elite pro and provided him with merchandise to promote the Rounder brand. No other considerations have been provided. Mr. Postle has never had ownership rights, nor has he ever been employed by Rounder. Rounder Life Media is not in a position to determine Mike Postle's guilt or innocence. This will be determined by the official investigation(s) being conducted, or through a court of law, not speculation. We will continue to pursue all relevant facts related to this case and report such, whether they support or disprove the charges. "Additional Notes" section was added after initial publication...Moneymaker quote was added to main story text..."The hand starts with a raise of $45" was changed to "The hand starts with a $45 straddle from Postle"...
